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David Montgomery

David Montgomery Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 4

Detroit Lions vs Cleveland Browns

David Montgomery Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-108/-116).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 9.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ -108.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the Detroit Lions to call the 9th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 64.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The 5th-most plays in the league have been run by the Detroit Lions since the start of last season (a staggering 59.3 per game on average).

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

David Montgomery ranks in the 76th percentile when it comes to RBs this year with a massive 0.2% of his offense's air yards accumulated.

David Montgomery profiles as one of the best possession receivers in the league among RBs, catching a fantastic 100.0% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, grading out in the 100th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the Lions offensive gameplan to tilt 1.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator John Morton now calling the plays.

An extreme rushing game script is suggested by the Lions being a heavy 10-point favorite in this game.

The predictive model expects the Detroit Lions to be the 8th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 54.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

Opposing QBs have averaged 29.5 pass attempts per game versus the Browns defense since the start of last season: 2nd-fewest in the NFL.

David Montgomery has notched substantially fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (9.0) this season than he did last season (23.0).

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