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David Montgomery

David Montgomery Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 16

Detroit Lions vs Pittsburgh Steelers

 
 
 
David Montgomery Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-134/+106).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 9.5 @ +100 before it was bet down to 8.5 @ +106.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Detroit Lions are projected by the projections to run 67.1 total plays in this contest: the 4th-highest number among all teams this week.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
  • Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 5th-most in the NFL.
  • When it comes to air yards, David Montgomery ranks in the towering 81st percentile among RBs this year, totaling a staggering 1.0 per game. (considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage, this is far more remarkable than it sounds since most RBs have negative air yards).
  • This year, the porous Steelers pass defense has surrendered a staggering 87.9% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing RBs: the 3rd-biggest rate in the league.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 7.5-point advantage, the Lions are a massive favorite this week, indicating much more of a focus on running than their usual approach.
  • The Lions have been the 10th-least pass-centric team in football (context-neutralized) this year with a 58.0% pass rate.
  • When talking about protecting the passer (and the importance it has on all passing game stats), the offensive line of the Lions profiles as the 10th-worst in football this year.
  • David Montgomery has put up many fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (11.0) this year than he did last year (23.0).
  • David Montgomery's 90.5% Adjusted Completion Rate this year reflects a meaningful regression in his receiving skills over last year's 97.8% rate.

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