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David Montgomery

David Montgomery Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 1

Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions

David Montgomery Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-110/-118).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 8.5 @ -118.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The 6th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Lions last year (a staggering 59.6 per game on average).

Our trusted projections expect David Montgomery to accumulate 2.7 targets this week, on balance, ranking him in the 80th percentile when it comes to RBs.

With a terrific 23.0 adjusted yards per game through the air (87th percentile) last year, David Montgomery rates among the leading pass-game RBs in football.

David Montgomery checks in as one of the most reliable receivers in the NFL when it comes to running backs, hauling in an impressive 97.9% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) last year, grading out in the 100th percentile.

With an outstanding 8.8 adjusted yards per target (95th percentile) last year, David Montgomery places among the leading running backs in the pass game in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The predictive model expects this game to see the 2nd-smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 125.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Detroit Lions have played in the most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL last year, which ought to result in reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced pass game performance when facing windier conditions in this week's contest.

David Montgomery has garnered a paltry -0.6% of his offense's air yards last year: a lowly 24th percentile among running backs.

The Packers pass defense has performed very well when opposing running backs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 7.01 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) last year: the 5th-fewest in the league.

The Green Bay Packers safeties profile as the 2nd-best safety corps in the NFL last year in defending receivers.

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