David Montgomery Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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David Montgomery

NFL · Player Props

David Montgomery

RB · Detroit Lions

Carries

Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions · Week 17, 2025

Updated Dec 26, 2025 1:07 AM EST

Analysis

David Montgomery Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 8.5 @ +100 before it was bet down to 8.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are a 6-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.
Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Lions are expected by the model to run 66.4 offensive plays in this contest: the 6th-highest number on the slate this week.

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Lions to run on 41.7% of their chances: the 11th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may slide.
After comprising 46.5% of his team's carries last year, David Montgomery has been less involved in the rushing attack this year, currently comprising just 35.7%.
As it relates to the defensive tackles' role in run defense, Minnesota's DT corps has been exceptional this year, projecting as the 2nd-best in the NFL.

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