David Montgomery Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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David Montgomery

NFL · Player Props

David Montgomery

RB · Chicago Bears

Carries

Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

David Montgomery Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-120/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 16.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 8.5% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the most run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 60.3% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects David Montgomery to total 16.3 rush attempts in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 89th percentile among RBs.
The Chicago Bears O-line profiles as the 7th-best in the league this year at run-game blocking.

Favors Under

The Bears are a massive 7.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 121.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have run the 7th-least plays in football this year, totaling a mere 55.0 plays per game.
David Montgomery has been a much smaller part of his offense's rushing attack this year (43.3% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (74.1%).

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