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Davante Adams

Davante Adams Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 3

Philadelphia Eagles vs Los Angeles Rams

Davante Adams Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+158/-190).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +184 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +158.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Rams are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Rams to pass on 61.7% of their chances: the 4th-greatest rate on the slate this week.

When it comes to air yards, Davante Adams ranks in the towering 90th percentile among wide receivers since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 88.0 per game.

Davante Adams slots into the 97th percentile for wide receiver WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive involvement) with a staggering 69.8 mark since the start of last season.

With a terrific ratio of 0.56 per game through the air (92nd percentile), Davante Adams places as one of the leading receiving touchdown-scorers in the league when it comes to wide receivers since the start of last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The projections expect the Rams to call the 8th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.7 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.

Los Angeles's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially inflated (and rushing stats deflated) in light of playing the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league. We should be able to count on some regression with windier weather in this week's contest.

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been disinclined to test the pass defense of the Eagles, averaging the 10th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 30.9 per game) since the start of last season.

The predictive model expects Davante Adams to be a much smaller piece of his team's passing offense near the goal line in this contest (30.6% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (37.3% in games he has played).

In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the impact it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Rams ranks as the 4th-worst in the league since the start of last season.

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