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Davante Adams Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-128/+112).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +115 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +112.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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Right now, the 4th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL (64.3% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Rams.Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Rams are projected by the projection model to run 65.6 plays on offense in this contest: the 7th-most on the slate this week.The weather report calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced rush volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.Davante Adams has totaled many more air yards this year (112.0 per game) than he did last year (84.0 per game).Davante Adams slots into the 92nd percentile when it comes to wide receiver WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive usage) with an astounding 65.8 mark this year.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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With a 6.5-point advantage, the Rams are favored in this week's game, indicating more of a reliance on rushing than their usual game plan.While Davante Adams has been responsible for 36.4% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a less important option in Los Angeles's passing attack near the end zone in this week's contest at 30.0%.As it relates to pocket protection (and the ramifications it has on all pass attack statistics), the offensive line of the Los Angeles Rams grades out as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year.Davante Adams's possession skills have worsened this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate falling off from 63.1% to 52.3%.The Buccaneers pass defense has surrendered the 6th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (61.2%) vs. WRs this year (61.2%).
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