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Davante Adams

Davante Adams Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 11

Los Angeles Rams vs Seattle Seahawks

 
 
 
Davante Adams Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+102/-103).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -103 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -103.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The projections expect the Los Angeles Rams to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 62.6% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
  • The Rams rank as the 8th-most pass-heavy offense in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) this year with a 59.7% red zone pass rate.
  • The predictive model expects the Los Angeles Rams to run the 6th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 66.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • Still weather conditions (like the 1-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally mean increased passing efficiency, increased touchdown potential, increased air attack volume, and lower run volume.
  • The Seattle Seahawks defense has been something of pass funnel this year, allowing opposing offenses to attempt the 2nd-most passes in football (40.4 per game) this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Rams are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a running game script.
  • The model projects Davante Adams to be much less involved in his team's pass attack near the goal line in this game (28.9% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (36.7% in games he has played).
  • The Rams offensive line grades out as the 9th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
  • Davante Adams's sure-handedness have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate falling off from 63.1% to 55.5%.
  • The Seahawks pass defense has conceded the 4th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (59.9%) to WRs this year (59.9%).

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