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Davante Adams

Davante Adams Receptions
Player Prop Week 4

Los Angeles Rams vs Indianapolis Colts

Davante Adams Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+150/-200).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -140 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -200.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The leading projections forecast the Los Angeles Rams as the 7th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 60.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is forecasted by the model to see 129.7 total plays called: the 3rd-highest number out of all the games this week.

The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (0-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while rush volume may drop-off.

Our trusted projections expect Davante Adams to notch 9.6 targets in this contest, on balance, putting him in the 96th percentile when it comes to WRs.

Davante Adams has been an integral part of his team's offense, posting a Target Share of 28.9% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 97th percentile among wideouts.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A rushing game script is implied by the Rams being a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest.

The Los Angeles Rams offensive line grades out as the worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.

Davante Adams's play as a receiver has tailed off this season, compiling a mere 3.3 adjusted catches vs 6.1 last season.

Davante Adams's sure-handedness have declined this year, with his Adjusted Catch% shrinking from 63.1% to 47.7%.

The Colts safeties project as the best unit in the NFL since the start of last season in defending receivers.

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