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Davante Adams

Davante Adams Receptions
Player Prop Week 12

Los Angeles Rams vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

 
 
 
Davante Adams Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+116/-134).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -129 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ +116.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Right now, the 4th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL (64.3% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Rams.
  • Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Rams are projected by the projection model to run 65.6 plays on offense in this contest: the 7th-most on the slate this week.
  • The weather report calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced rush volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
  • The model projects Davante Adams to total 9.4 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 93rd percentile among wideouts.
  • Davante Adams slots into the 92nd percentile when it comes to wide receiver WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive usage) with an astounding 65.8 mark this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 6.5-point advantage, the Rams are favored in this week's game, indicating more of a reliance on rushing than their usual game plan.
  • As it relates to pocket protection (and the ramifications it has on all pass attack statistics), the offensive line of the Los Angeles Rams grades out as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year.
  • Davante Adams's 4.0 adjusted receptions per game this season illustrates a meaningful decrease in his pass-catching talent over last season's 6.1 mark.
  • Davante Adams's possession skills have worsened this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate falling off from 63.1% to 52.3%.
  • The Buccaneers pass defense has surrendered the 6th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (61.2%) vs. WRs this year (61.2%).

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