Davante Adams Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Davante Adams

NFL · Player Props

Davante Adams

WR · Las Vegas Raiders

Receiving Yards

Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 8:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Davante Adams Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 76.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 66.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 76.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Raiders as the 6th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 61.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is expected by the projections to see 128.2 offensive plays run: the 5th-highest number among all games this week.
The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.
In this contest, Davante Adams is anticipated by the projection model to position himself in the 98th percentile among wide receivers with 10.7 targets.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point spike in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive involvement) from last year to this one, Davante Adams has been more prominently featured in his offense's pass attack.

Favors Under

The 5th-lowest number of plays in the league have been run by the Raiders this year (a lowly 53.0 per game on average).
Davante Adams has compiled quite a few less air yards this year (116.0 per game) than he did last year (124.0 per game).
Davante Adams's 3.46 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season signifies a an impressive diminishment in his effectiveness in the open field over last season's 5.0% rate.
This year, the daunting Patriots pass defense has given up the 9th-least yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing wide receivers: a measly 4.1 YAC.

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