Davante Adams Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Davante Adams

NFL · Player Props

Davante Adams

WR · Las Vegas Raiders

Receiving Yards

Miami Dolphins vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Davante Adams Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 59.5 (-136/+104).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 66.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 59.5 @ +104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

An extreme passing game script is indicated by the Raiders being an enormous -14-point underdog in this week's contest.
In this week's game, Davante Adams is forecasted by the projections to secure a spot in the 99th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 11.0 targets.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point spike in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive volume) from last year to this one, Davante Adams has been more heavily used in his offense's passing offense.
The Raiders O-line ranks as the best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
The Dolphins pass defense has been torched for the 4th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (72.1%) versus WRs this year (72.1%).

Favors Under

At the moment, the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (55.1% context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Las Vegas Raiders.
Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Las Vegas Raiders are forecasted by the predictive model to run only 62.8 total plays in this contest: the 5th-lowest number on the slate this week.
The Raiders have called the 3rd-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a measly 53.6 plays per game.
After averaging 124.0 air yards per game last year, Davante Adams has seen a big decline this year, now averaging 119.0 per game.
Davante Adams's 71.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season illustrates a noteable reduction in his receiving prowess over last season's 89.0 mark.

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