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Darren Waller

Darren Waller Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 5

Carolina Panthers vs Miami Dolphins

Darren Waller Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+275/-355).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +290 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +275.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At the present time, the 7th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL in the red zone (58.3% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Miami Dolphins.

The Carolina Panthers pass defense has yielded the 4th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (80.1%) to tight ends since the start of last season (80.1%).

The Panthers linebackers rank as the 2nd-worst unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The predictive model expects the Dolphins to run the fewest total plays on the slate this week with 59.0 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.

The 4th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Miami Dolphins this year (just 49.8 per game on average).

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Carolina Panthers defense this year: 10th-fewest in football.

While Darren Waller has been responsible for 33.3% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be a less important option in Miami's passing attack near the goal line in this week's contest at 17.1%.

When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the ramifications it has on all pass game statistics), the O-line of the Miami Dolphins profiles as the 2nd-worst in the league this year.

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