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Darren Waller

Darren Waller Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 4

Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets

Darren Waller Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+810/-900).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -610 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -900.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The leading projections forecast the Dolphins to be the 6th-most pass-centric offense in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 58.9% red zone pass rate.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The leading projections forecast the Dolphins to call the fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.0 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.

The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.

Opposing teams teams have been disinclined to lean on the pass against the Jets, totaling the fewest attempts in football (a lowly 30.4 per game) since the start of last season.

In regards to protecting the passer (and the effect it has on all passing attack metrics), the O-line of the Dolphins profiles as the 5th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season.

Since the start of last season, the anemic New York Jets run defense has been torched for a massive 1.25 rushing touchdowns per game to opposing squads: the largest rate in the NFL.

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