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Darren Waller

Darren Waller Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 17

Miami Dolphins vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

 
 
 
Darren Waller Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+270/-325).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -360 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -325.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Dolphins are a 5.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
  • Darren Waller has totaled a colossal 46.0 air yards per game this year: 95th percentile among tight ends.
  • Darren Waller's 39.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive usage) grades out among the best in the NFL: 92nd percentile for TEs.
  • Darren Waller ranks in the 100th percentile among tight ends as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging a stellar 0.75 per game.
  • The Buccaneers pass defense has been gouged for the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (78.4%) to tight ends this year (78.4%).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Dolphins to pass on 54.8% of their chances: the 9th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Dolphins to be the 10th-most run-heavy team in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 47.0% red zone run rate.
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to have only 124.5 offensive plays called: the fewest among all games this week.
  • The lowest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Miami Dolphins this year (a measly 51.9 per game on average).
  • While Darren Waller has accounted for 25.0% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be a less important option in Miami's pass game near the end zone in this week's game at 19.1%.

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