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Darren Waller Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 16

Miami Dolphins vs Cincinnati Bengals

Darren Waller Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+210/-275).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +270 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +210.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This week's spread suggests a throwing game script for the Dolphins, who are -3.5-point underdogs.

In regards to air yards, Darren Waller grades out in the towering 95th percentile among TEs this year, accruing a staggering 45.0 per game.

Darren Waller's 37.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive volume) puts him in the company of the best in the league: 90th percentile for TEs.

With a stellar rate of 0.86 per game through the air (100th percentile), Darren Waller stands among the leading receiving TD-scorers in football among TEs this year.

This year, the deficient Bengals defense has been gouged for a staggering 1.07 TDs through the air per game to opposing TEs: the worst rate in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The leading projections forecast the Miami Dolphins as the 7th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 54.1% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

The leading projections forecast this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 122.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Miami Dolphins have called the 3rd-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a mere 51.9 plays per game.

The model projects Darren Waller to be much less involved in his offense's passing game near the end zone in this game (18.7% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (25.0% in games he has played).

In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the importance it has on all passing game statistics), the O-line of the Miami Dolphins grades out as the worst in football this year.

More Darren Waller Player Props

Darren Waller TouchdownsPlayer Prop Week 16

Miami Dolphins vs Cincinnati Bengals

Darren Waller Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 16