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Darren Waller

Darren Waller Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 15

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Miami Dolphins

 
 
 
Darren Waller Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+270/-350).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +275 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +270.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Dolphins are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Steelers defense this year: 5th-most in the league.
  • Darren Waller has notched a staggering 40.0 air yards per game this year: 88th percentile among tight ends.
  • Darren Waller's 31.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive volume) ranks among the best in the league: 83rd percentile for TEs.
  • With a terrific ratio of 0.80 per game through the air (100th percentile), Darren Waller has been as one of the leading receiving TD-scorers in the NFL among tight ends this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Miami Dolphins to pass on 57.5% of their opportunities: the lowest rate on the slate this week.
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is projected by our trusted projection set to have just 125.8 total plays called: the fewest out of all the games this week.
  • The Miami Dolphins have called the 3rd-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 52.4 plays per game.
  • The leading projections forecast Darren Waller to be a less important option in his offense's air attack near the goal line in this week's game (15.0% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (20.0% in games he has played).
  • In regards to protecting the passer (and the influence it has on all passing offense metrics), the offensive line of the Miami Dolphins profiles as the worst in the league this year.

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