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Darren Waller

Darren Waller Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 14

New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins

 
 
 
Darren Waller Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+260/-300).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +255 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +260.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Darren Waller has accumulated a monstrous 41.0 air yards per game this year: 89th percentile when it comes to TEs.
  • Darren Waller's 29.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in the NFL: 81st percentile for tight ends.
  • With an excellent ratio of 1.00 per game through the air (100th percentile), Darren Waller places among the top receiving touchdown-scorers in the league when it comes to tight ends this year.
  • The Jets defense has been gouged for the 3rd-most receiving TDs in football to TEs: 0.58 per game this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 57.8% rate of passing the ball (in a neutral context) this year, the 7th-least pass-focused team in the league has been the Miami Dolphins.
  • Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Dolphins are predicted by the projection model to call only 63.6 total plays in this contest: the 6th-lowest number among all teams this week.
  • The Dolphins have called the 4th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 52.0 plays per game.
  • The leading projections forecast Darren Waller to be a less important option in his offense's pass game near the end zone in this week's game (17.5% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (22.7% in games he has played).
  • The Miami Dolphins offensive line ranks as the 2nd-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative influence on all passing game metrics across the board.

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