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Darren Waller Receptions
Player Prop Week 17

Miami Dolphins vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Darren Waller Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+120/-160).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +130 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Dolphins are a 5.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.

The leading projections forecast Darren Waller to earn 4.8 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 78th percentile among TEs.

Darren Waller's 39.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive usage) grades out among the best in the NFL: 92nd percentile for TEs.

Darren Waller ranks as one of the leading TEs in the pass game this year, averaging an impressive 2.9 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 75th percentile.

The Buccaneers pass defense has been gouged for the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (78.4%) to tight ends this year (78.4%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Dolphins to pass on 54.8% of their chances: the 9th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to have only 124.5 offensive plays called: the fewest among all games this week.

The lowest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Miami Dolphins this year (a measly 51.9 per game on average).

When talking about pass-blocking (and the influence it has on all passing attack stats), the O-line of the Dolphins ranks as the worst in the league this year.

More Darren Waller Player Props

Darren Waller ReceptionsPlayer Prop Week 17

Miami Dolphins vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Darren Waller Receptions
Player Prop Week 17