Darren Waller Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Darren Waller

NFL · Player Props

Darren Waller

TE · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Miami Dolphins · Week 15, 2025

Updated Dec 16, 2025 1:12 AM EST

Analysis

Darren Waller Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-125/-103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Steelers defense this year: 5th-most in the league.
Darren Waller's 31.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive volume) ranks among the best in the league: 83rd percentile for TEs.
This year, the poor Steelers pass defense has allowed a whopping 80.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing tight ends: the worst rate in football.
The Steelers safeties rank as the worst unit in the NFL this year in defending receivers.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Miami Dolphins to pass on 57.5% of their opportunities: the lowest rate on the slate this week.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is projected by our trusted projection set to have just 125.8 total plays called: the fewest out of all the games this week.
The Miami Dolphins have called the 3rd-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 52.4 plays per game.
In regards to protecting the passer (and the influence it has on all passing offense metrics), the offensive line of the Miami Dolphins profiles as the worst in the league this year.

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