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Darren Waller

Darren Waller Receptions
Player Prop Week 14

New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins

 
 
 
Darren Waller Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-145/+110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +115 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +110.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Our trusted projections expect Darren Waller to accumulate 4.8 targets in this week's contest, on balance, placing him in the 76th percentile among TEs.
  • Darren Waller's 29.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in the NFL: 81st percentile for tight ends.
  • With a terrific 3.0 adjusted receptions per game (79th percentile) this year, Darren Waller rates among the best pass-game TEs in the NFL.
  • The Jets linebackers project as the 5th-worst collection of LBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 57.8% rate of passing the ball (in a neutral context) this year, the 7th-least pass-focused team in the league has been the Miami Dolphins.
  • Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Dolphins are predicted by the projection model to call only 63.6 total plays in this contest: the 6th-lowest number among all teams this week.
  • The Dolphins have called the 4th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 52.0 plays per game.
  • The Miami Dolphins offensive line ranks as the 2nd-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative influence on all passing game metrics across the board.

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