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Darren Waller

Darren Waller Receptions
Player Prop Week 2

Arizona Cardinals vs New York Giants

 
 
 
Darren Waller Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-146/+114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -138 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -146.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The New York Giants have run the 9th-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 59.5 plays per game.
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • THE BLITZ projects Darren Waller to earn 6.3 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 97th percentile among tight ends.
  • THE BLITZ projects Darren Waller to be a much bigger part of his team's pass game this week (21.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (14.9% in games he has played).
  • Darren Waller has been among the best pass-catching TEs since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 3.5 receptions per game while grading out in the 85th percentile.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Giants are a 4.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants as the 5th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 53.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 122.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The New York Giants offensive line profiles as the 2nd-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all air attack stats across the board.
  • Darren Waller's receiving reliability have tailed off this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 68.1% to 58.0%.

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