Darren Waller Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Darren Waller

NFL · Player Props

Darren Waller

TE · New York Giants

Receptions

Arizona Cardinals vs New York Giants · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 17, 2023 8:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Darren Waller Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-146/+114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -138 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -146.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New York Giants have run the 9th-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 59.5 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Darren Waller to earn 6.3 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 97th percentile among tight ends.
THE BLITZ projects Darren Waller to be a much bigger part of his team's pass game this week (21.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (14.9% in games he has played).
Darren Waller has been among the best pass-catching TEs since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 3.5 receptions per game while grading out in the 85th percentile.

Favors Under

The Giants are a 4.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants as the 5th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 53.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 122.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The New York Giants offensive line profiles as the 2nd-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all air attack stats across the board.
Darren Waller's receiving reliability have tailed off this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 68.1% to 58.0%.

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