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Darren Waller

Darren Waller Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 7

Cleveland Browns vs Miami Dolphins

 
 
 
Darren Waller Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (-111/-111).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 36.5 @ -111 before it was bet down to 30.5 @ -111.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Right now, the 10th-most pass-focused offense in the NFL (62.2% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Dolphins.
  • The model projects Darren Waller to garner 5.7 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 83rd percentile when it comes to tight ends.
  • Darren Waller grades out in the 99th percentile when it comes to TEs this year with an impressive 25.0% of his offense's air yards accumulated.
  • With a remarkable 85.9% Adjusted Completion Rate (86th percentile) this year, Darren Waller has been among the most reliable receivers in the NFL among TEs.
  • With an exceptional 10.8 adjusted yards per target (94th percentile) this year, Darren Waller has been among the best pass-catching tight ends in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Dolphins are projected by the model to call only 62.2 total plays in this game: the 4th-lowest number among all teams this week.
  • The Dolphins have called the fewest plays in the league this year, totaling just 49.8 plays per game.
  • The weather report calls for 19-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
  • Opposing offenses teams have been disinclined to test the pass defense of the Cleveland Browns, averaging the 6th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 29.5 per game) this year.
  • When it comes to protecting the quarterback (and the effect it has on all pass game statistics), the O-line of the Miami Dolphins ranks as the 2nd-worst in football this year.

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