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Darren Waller

Darren Waller Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 4

Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets

Darren Waller Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ -125.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At the moment, the 8th-most pass-centric team in football (62.1% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Dolphins.

The Jets safeties profile as the worst unit in the NFL since the start of last season in defending pass-catchers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The leading projections forecast the Dolphins to call the fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.0 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.

The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.

Opposing teams teams have been disinclined to lean on the pass against the Jets, totaling the fewest attempts in football (a lowly 30.4 per game) since the start of last season.

In regards to protecting the passer (and the effect it has on all passing attack metrics), the O-line of the Dolphins profiles as the 5th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season.

The New York Jets defense has yielded the 5th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (just 38.0) to tight ends since the start of last season.

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