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Darren Waller Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 32.5 (-125/-103).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 27.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 32.5 @ -125.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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This week's spread suggests a throwing game script for the Dolphins, who are -3.5-point underdogs.In regards to air yards, Darren Waller grades out in the towering 95th percentile among TEs this year, accruing a staggering 45.0 per game.Darren Waller's 37.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive volume) puts him in the company of the best in the league: 90th percentile for TEs.Darren Waller ranks as one of the best TEs in the pass game this year, averaging an exceptional 37.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 81st percentile.With an exceptional 10.1 adjusted yards per target (92nd percentile) this year, Darren Waller ranks as one of the leading pass-catching tight ends in the league.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The leading projections forecast the Miami Dolphins as the 7th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 54.1% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.The leading projections forecast this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 122.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.The Miami Dolphins have called the 3rd-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a mere 51.9 plays per game.In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the importance it has on all passing game statistics), the O-line of the Miami Dolphins grades out as the worst in football this year.Darren Waller profiles as one of the weakest tight ends in the NFL at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a measly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while checking in at the 2nd percentile.
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