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Darren Waller

Darren Waller Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 14

New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins

 
 
 
Darren Waller Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 35.5 (-113/-111).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 28.5 @ -111 before it was bet up to 35.5 @ -113.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Our trusted projections expect Darren Waller to accumulate 4.8 targets in this week's contest, on balance, placing him in the 76th percentile among TEs.
  • Darren Waller has accumulated a monstrous 41.0 air yards per game this year: 89th percentile when it comes to TEs.
  • Darren Waller's 29.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in the NFL: 81st percentile for tight ends.
  • Darren Waller grades out as one of the top tight ends in the pass game this year, averaging a stellar 43.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 91st percentile.
  • Darren Waller comes in as one of the most efficient receivers in the NFL among tight ends, averaging a remarkable 11.42 adjusted yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 95th percentile.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 57.8% rate of passing the ball (in a neutral context) this year, the 7th-least pass-focused team in the league has been the Miami Dolphins.
  • Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Dolphins are predicted by the projection model to call only 63.6 total plays in this contest: the 6th-lowest number among all teams this week.
  • The Dolphins have called the 4th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 52.0 plays per game.
  • The Miami Dolphins offensive line ranks as the 2nd-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative influence on all passing game metrics across the board.
  • With a weak 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (2nd percentile) this year, Darren Waller rates among the best pass-game TEs in football in picking up extra yardage.

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