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Darren Waller

Darren Waller Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 13

Miami Dolphins vs New Orleans Saints

 
 
 
Darren Waller Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 25.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 25.5 @ -120.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Darren Waller has put up a massive 39.0 air yards per game this year: 91st percentile among TEs.
  • Darren Waller ranks in the 80th percentile when it comes to tight end WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive usage) with a superb 28.1 figure this year.
  • Darren Waller is positioned as one of the most effective pass-catchers in the NFL among tight ends, averaging an outstanding 10.79 adjusted yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 92nd percentile.
  • This year, the shaky New Orleans Saints pass defense has given up a monstrous 78.9% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing tight ends: the 6th-worst rate in the NFL.
  • The New Orleans Saints safeties rank as the 9th-worst collection of safeties in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Dolphins are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating a running game script.
  • Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Dolphins to pass on 54.6% of their opportunities: the 10th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
  • Right now, the most sluggish paced offense in football (in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Miami Dolphins.
  • The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
  • Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to pass too much against the Saints, totaling the fewest attempts in football (a measly 28.6 per game) this year.

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