Darrell Henderson Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Darrell Henderson

NFL · Player Props

Darrell Henderson

RB · Los Angeles Rams

Rushing TD

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Darrell Henderson Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+326/-606).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -600 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -606.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the 5th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 66.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defensive ends grade out as the 2nd-worst group of DEs in the league this year in regard to run defense.
The Los Angeles Rams have gone no-huddle on 15.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (3rd-most in the NFL). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat production.

Favors Under

The Rams are a 3-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams to be the 10th-least run-heavy offense in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 41.0% red zone run rate.
The Los Angeles Rams offensive line ranks as the worst in the league this year in run blocking.
Opposing teams have rushed for the 8th-least TDs in football (0.62 per game) vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year.
The Los Angeles Rams have elected to go for it on 4th down a lowly 14.7% of the time since the start of last season (4th-least in the league), which typically means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.

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