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Darnell Mooney

Darnell Mooney Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 4

Atlanta Falcons vs Washington Commanders

 
 
 
Darnell Mooney Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+270/-395).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.
  • While Darnell Mooney has received 11.7% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played since the start of last season, the projections expect him to be a more important option in Atlanta's passing attack near the goal line in this contest at 18.1%.
  • Darnell Mooney has posted a staggering 75.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 83rd percentile when it comes to wideouts.
  • Darnell Mooney slots into the 78th percentile among wide receiver WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive volume) with a colossal 53.7 figure since the start of last season.
  • Since the start of last season, the shaky Washington Commanders defense has been torched for a whopping 1.00 TDs through the air per game to opposing wideouts: the 10th-worst rate in the league.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Falcons to pass on 54.4% of their opportunities: the 7th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
  • The predictive model expects the Falcons to be the 5th-most run-focused offense in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 48.0% red zone run rate.
  • The Falcons offense has played at the 9th-most sluggish pace in the NFL (context-neutralized) this year, averaging 29.43 seconds per play.
  • Opposing teams teams have been hesitant to test the pass defense of the Commanders, averaging the 7th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 30.6 per game) since the start of last season.
  • Darnell Mooney's 44.3% Adjusted Catch% this season reflects a substantial drop-off in his receiving ability over last season's 62.7% mark.

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