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Darnell Mooney

Darnell Mooney Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 17

Atlanta Falcons vs Los Angeles Rams

 
 
 
Darnell Mooney Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+450/-455).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +500 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +450.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At a -7.5-point disadvantage, the Falcons are enormous underdogs in this game, indicating much more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their usual approach.
  • Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 133.7 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 37.7 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Rams defense this year: 6th-most in the league.
  • Darnell Mooney has put up a staggering 71.0 air yards per game this year: 80th percentile when it comes to WRs.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Falcons to pass on 61.4% of their chances: the 6th-greatest clip among all teams this week.
  • The projections expect the Atlanta Falcons to be the 9th-most run-focused offense in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) right now with a 47.7% red zone run rate.
  • Darnell Mooney's receiving reliability have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Catch% decreasing from 62.7% to 44.5%.
  • With a very bad rate of just 0.07 per game through the air (22nd percentile), Darnell Mooney ranks among the weakest receiving TD-scorers in the league among wideouts this year.

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