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Darnell Mooney

Darnell Mooney Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 17

Atlanta Falcons vs Los Angeles Rams

 
 
 
Darnell Mooney Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+500/-670).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -660 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -670.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At a -8-point disadvantage, the Falcons are enormous underdogs in this game, indicating much more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their usual approach.
  • Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Falcons to pass on 61.6% of their chances: the 6th-greatest clip among all teams this week.
  • Our trusted projections expect this game to have the highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 133.9 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 37.7 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Rams defense this year: 6th-most in the league.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The projections expect the Atlanta Falcons to be the 9th-most run-focused offense in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) right now with a 47.7% red zone run rate.
  • Darnell Mooney's receiving reliability have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Catch% decreasing from 62.7% to 44.5%.
  • With a very bad rate of just 0.07 per game through the air (22nd percentile), Darnell Mooney ranks among the weakest receiving TD-scorers in the league among wideouts this year.

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