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Darnell Mooney

Darnell Mooney Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 13

New York Jets vs Atlanta Falcons

 
 
 
Darnell Mooney Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+260/-355).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -345 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -355.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projections to have 133.1 plays on offense run: the 2nd-highest number among all games this week.
  • Our trusted projections expect Darnell Mooney to be a much bigger part of his team's pass attack near the end zone in this week's game (21.7% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (14.3% in games he has played).
  • After totaling 73.0 air yards per game last season, Darnell Mooney has seen a big uptick this season, currently boasting 82.0 per game.
  • Darnell Mooney slots into the 78th percentile when it comes to wide receiver WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive involvement) with an impressive 51.4 mark this year.
  • When talking about pass-blocking (and the positive effect it has on all passing game statistics), the offensive line of the Atlanta Falcons grades out as the 3rd-best in football this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Falcons are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
  • Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Atlanta Falcons to pass on 52.1% of their downs: the 5th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
  • The leading projections forecast the Atlanta Falcons to be the 4th-most run-focused offense in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 49.9% red zone run rate.
  • Darnell Mooney's ball-catching skills have tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 62.7% to 41.7%.
  • This year, the stout New York Jets defense has yielded a paltry 0.64 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing wide receivers: the 7th-best rate in football.

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