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Darnell Mooney

Darnell Mooney Receptions
Player Prop Week 4

Atlanta Falcons vs Washington Commanders

Darnell Mooney Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-105/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -112 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.

Darnell Mooney has run a route on 95.6% of his team's dropbacks since the start of last season, putting him in the 96th percentile when it comes to wideouts.

In this week's game, Darnell Mooney is projected by the model to slot into the 77th percentile when it comes to WRs with 6.7 targets.

With a fantastic 3.8 adjusted receptions per game (76th percentile) since the start of last season, Darnell Mooney places as one of the leading WRs in the game in the league.

The Washington Commanders cornerbacks project as the worst CB corps in the league since the start of last season in defending receivers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Falcons to pass on 54.4% of their opportunities: the 7th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.

The Falcons offense has played at the 9th-most sluggish pace in the NFL (context-neutralized) this year, averaging 29.43 seconds per play.

Opposing teams teams have been hesitant to test the pass defense of the Commanders, averaging the 7th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 30.6 per game) since the start of last season.

Darnell Mooney's 44.3% Adjusted Catch% this season reflects a substantial drop-off in his receiving ability over last season's 62.7% mark.

Since the start of last season, the fierce Commanders defense has conceded a mere 63.7% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing WRs: the 9th-best rate in football.

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