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Darnell Mooney

Darnell Mooney Receptions
Player Prop Week 3

Carolina Panthers vs Atlanta Falcons

Darnell Mooney Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-112/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The 4th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Falcons since the start of last season (a colossal 59.7 per game on average).

Darnell Mooney has run a route on 96.4% of his team's dropbacks since the start of last season, placing him in the 97th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.

The Carolina Panthers linebackers profile as the worst unit in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This game's spread suggests a running game script for the Falcons, who are favored by 4.5 points.

The model projects the Falcons as the 4th-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 51.2% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is forecasted by the predictive model to see just 121.5 plays on offense run: the lowest number on the slate this week.

The Falcons have played in the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which should mean reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing attack efficiency when facing windier weather in this game.

Opposing teams teams have been hesitant to lean on the pass against the Carolina Panthers, averaging the 7th-fewest attempts in football (a lowly 30.6 per game) since the start of last season.

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