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Darnell Mooney Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-130/+100).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +110 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +100.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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This week's spread suggests a throwing game script for the Falcons, who are -4.5-point underdogs.The model projects the Atlanta Falcons offense to be the 7th-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 27.25 seconds per play.The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and reduced run volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.Darnell Mooney has run a route on 93.1% of his offense's passing plays this year, placing him in the 92nd percentile among wide receivers.In this week's contest, Darnell Mooney is anticipated by the projections to land in the 79th percentile among wideouts with 6.8 targets.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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At the present time, the least pass-heavy offense in football (55.3% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Falcons.Darnell Mooney's play as a receiver has declined this season, accumulating a mere 2.0 adjusted receptions vs 3.9 last season.Darnell Mooney's receiving reliability have declined this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate shrinking from 62.7% to 42.1%.This year, the formidable Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has surrendered a feeble 62.2% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wide receivers: the 6th-smallest rate in the league.When it comes to safeties in pass coverage, Tampa Bay's safety corps has been exceptional this year, projecting as the best in the league.
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