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Darnell Mooney

Darnell Mooney Receptions
Player Prop Week 12

New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons

 
 
 
Darnell Mooney Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-128/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ +122 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ +100.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to see 142.5 offensive plays run: the most on the slate this week.
  • The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop.
  • Our trusted projections expect Darnell Mooney to accrue 8.7 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 91st percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
  • Our trusted projections expect Darnell Mooney to be a much bigger part of his offense's passing game in this week's game (25.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (19.1% in games he has played).
  • When talking about pass protection (and the strong impact it has on all air attack statistics), the O-line of the Atlanta Falcons ranks as the 10th-best in the NFL this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • At the moment, the 2nd-least pass-focused team in football (56.0% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Atlanta Falcons.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 28.9 pass attempts per game vs. the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 3rd-fewest in the league.
  • Darnell Mooney's pass-catching performance tailed off this season, accumulating just 1.9 adjusted catches vs 3.9 last season.
  • Darnell Mooney's receiving reliability have declined this year, with his Adjusted Catch% falling off from 62.7% to 37.3%.
  • The Saints linebackers grade out as the 10th-best LB corps in football this year in defending pass-catchers.

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