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Darnell Mooney

Darnell Mooney Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 4

Atlanta Falcons vs Washington Commanders

Darnell Mooney Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 46.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 45.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 46.5 @ -120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.

Darnell Mooney has run a route on 95.6% of his team's dropbacks since the start of last season, putting him in the 96th percentile when it comes to wideouts.

In this week's game, Darnell Mooney is projected by the model to slot into the 77th percentile when it comes to WRs with 6.7 targets.

Darnell Mooney has posted a staggering 75.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 83rd percentile when it comes to wideouts.

With a remarkable 56.0 adjusted yards per game through the air (83rd percentile) since the start of last season, Darnell Mooney stands as one of the best pass-catching WRs in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Falcons to pass on 54.4% of their opportunities: the 7th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.

The Falcons offense has played at the 9th-most sluggish pace in the NFL (context-neutralized) this year, averaging 29.43 seconds per play.

Opposing teams teams have been hesitant to test the pass defense of the Commanders, averaging the 7th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 30.6 per game) since the start of last season.

Darnell Mooney's 44.3% Adjusted Catch% this season reflects a substantial drop-off in his receiving ability over last season's 62.7% mark.

Darnell Mooney's receiving effectiveness has diminished this season, accumulating just 4.87 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 9.31 figure last season.

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