Darnell Mooney Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Darnell Mooney

NFL · Player Props

Darnell Mooney

WR · Atlanta Falcons

Receiving Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 17, 2025

Updated Dec 30, 2025 1:17 AM EST

Analysis

Darnell Mooney Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-111/-111).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 23.5 @ -111 before it was bet up to 24.5 @ -111.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -7.5-point disadvantage, the Falcons are enormous underdogs in this game, indicating much more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their usual approach.
Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 133.7 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have averaged 37.7 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Rams defense this year: 6th-most in the league.
Darnell Mooney has run a route on 92.7% of his team's dropbacks this year, placing him in the 90th percentile when it comes to WRs.

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Falcons to pass on 61.4% of their chances: the 6th-greatest clip among all teams this week.
Darnell Mooney's 27.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season conveys a meaningful regression in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 58.0 figure.
Darnell Mooney's receiving reliability have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Catch% decreasing from 62.7% to 44.5%.
Darnell Mooney's pass-game efficiency has diminished this season, totaling just 6.37 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 9.31 rate last season.
Darnell Mooney's ability to generate extra yardage has diminished this season, totaling just 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 4.22 rate last season.

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