Darnell Mooney Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Darnell Mooney

NFL · Player Props

Darnell Mooney

WR · Atlanta Falcons

Receiving Yards

New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 12, 2025

Updated Nov 24, 2025 12:22 AM EST

Analysis

Darnell Mooney Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 49.5 (+104/-116).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 33.5 @ -119 before it was bet up to 49.5 @ +104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to see 142.5 offensive plays run: the most on the slate this week.
The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop.
Our trusted projections expect Darnell Mooney to accrue 8.7 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 91st percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
Our trusted projections expect Darnell Mooney to be a much bigger part of his offense's passing game in this week's game (25.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (19.1% in games he has played).
After accumulating 73.0 air yards per game last year, Darnell Mooney has been rising this year, now averaging 84.0 per game.

Favors Under

At the moment, the 2nd-least pass-focused team in football (56.0% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Atlanta Falcons.
Opposing offenses have averaged 28.9 pass attempts per game vs. the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 3rd-fewest in the league.
Darnell Mooney has posted a lot fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (26.0) this season than he did last season (58.0).
Darnell Mooney's receiving reliability have declined this year, with his Adjusted Catch% falling off from 62.7% to 37.3%.
Darnell Mooney's pass-catching efficiency has worsened this year, notching a mere 5.22 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 9.31 rate last year.

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