Darnell Mooney Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Darnell Mooney

NFL · Player Props

Darnell Mooney

WR · Chicago Bears

Receiving TD

Dallas Cowboys vs Chicago Bears · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 7:26 PM EST

Analysis

Darnell Mooney Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+279/-476).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +291 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +279.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a big 9.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 38.9 pass attempts per game versus the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Darnell Mooney to be a much bigger part of his offense's passing offense near the end zone this week (23.6% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (16.7% in games he has played).
Darnell Mooney's 73.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this year than it was last year at 62.2.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense to be the 4th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 29.62 seconds per snap.
Darnell Mooney has posted quite a few less air yards this season (79.0 per game) than he did last season (88.0 per game).
The Chicago Bears O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
Darnell Mooney's sure-handedness have declined this year, with his Completion% falling off from 59.7% to 56.2%.
Darnell Mooney grades out in the 1st percentile among wide receivers when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging just 0.00 per game.

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