Darnell Mooney Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Darnell Mooney

NFL · Player Props

Darnell Mooney

WR · Chicago Bears

Receiving TD

Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Darnell Mooney Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+266/-443).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +319 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +266.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a giant 7.5-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game against the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 10th-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Darnell Mooney to be a more integral piece of his team's air attack near the goal line this week (19.5% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (0.0% in games he has played).
Darnell Mooney's 62.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in the NFL: 92nd percentile for wideouts.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense as the 6th-slowest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 29.41 seconds per snap.
Darnell Mooney has accrued quite a few less air yards this season (62.0 per game) than he did last season (88.0 per game).
The Chicago Bears O-line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
Darnell Mooney's sure-handedness have declined this year, with his Completion% falling off from 59.7% to 52.4%.
Darnell Mooney ranks in the 1st percentile among wide receivers as it relates to catching touchdowns this year, averaging just 0.00 per game.

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