Darnell Mooney Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Darnell Mooney

WR · Chicago Bears

Receiving TD

Chicago Bears vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM EST

Analysis

Darnell Mooney Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+276/-470).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -387 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -470.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Darnell Mooney to be a more important option in his offense's air attack near the end zone this week (21.1% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (15.0% in games he has played).
Darnell Mooney has accrued a colossal 88.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 88th percentile among WRs.
Darnell Mooney's 62.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in the league: 90th percentile for wideouts.
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has allowed the 5th-highest Completion% in the NFL (68.4%) vs. wide receivers since the start of last season (68.4%).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Bears to run the 2nd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 58.9 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game against the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season: 5th-least in football.
Darnell Mooney has been among the most unreliable receivers in the league, completing just 59.7% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 18th percentile among WRs
The Chicago Bears have faced a stacked the box on a measly 14.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Chicago Bears have incorporated play action on a mere 23.7% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (10th-least in the NFL), which ultimately hampers passing efficiency.