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Daniel Jones Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 4

Los Angeles Rams vs Indianapolis Colts

Daniel Jones Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+220/-245).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -265 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -245.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Colts are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.

The model projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 129.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The passing attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (0-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while ground volume may slide.

When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the positive effect it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Indianapolis Colts profiles as the 4th-best in football since the start of last season.

Daniel Jones's 69.2% Adjusted Completion% this season represents an impressive growth in his throwing accuracy over last season's 63.4% rate.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the Colts to be the 2nd-most run-heavy team in the NFL near the end zone (in a neutral context) right now with a 50.5% red zone run rate.

Making up 27.3% of his offense's red zone run game usage this year (89th percentile when it comes to QBs), Daniel Jones's mobility makes him a major threat as a ball-carrier near the goal line.

Daniel Jones has been one of the weakest touchdown passers in football this year, averaging a terrible 0.75 per game while ranking in the 25th percentile.

Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 4th-lowest clip in the NFL against the Los Angeles Rams defense since the start of last season (67.6% Adjusted Completion%).

More Daniel Jones Player Props

Daniel Jones TouchdownsPlayer Prop Week 4

Los Angeles Rams vs Indianapolis Colts

Daniel Jones Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 4