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Daniel Jones

Daniel Jones TD Passes
Player Prop Week 5

Indianapolis Colts vs Las Vegas Raiders

 
 
 
Daniel Jones TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+110/-140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -140.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Colts are predicted by the predictive model to call 65.5 plays on offense in this game: the 8th-most on the slate this week.
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
  • Daniel Jones's passing accuracy has been refined this year, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 63.4% to 70.3%.
  • When it comes to safeties in pass coverage, Las Vegas's collection of safeties has been easily exploitable this year, profiling as the 3rd-worst in the NFL.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This game's spread suggests a running game script for the Colts, who are favored by 6.5 points.
  • Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Indianapolis Colts to pass on 54.9% of their opportunities: the 7th-lowest clip among all teams this week.
  • The projections expect the Indianapolis Colts to be the 2nd-least pass-heavy team in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 49.3% red zone pass rate.
  • This year, the formidable Raiders defense has surrendered a meager 1.25 TDs through the air per game to opposing offenses: the 7th-lowest rate in the NFL.

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