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Daniel Jones

Daniel Jones TD Passes
Player Prop Week 3

Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts

 
 
 
Daniel Jones TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+148/-166).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +158 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +148.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The leading projections forecast the Indianapolis Colts to run the 9th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 64.8 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
  • The Indianapolis offensive line ranks as the 4th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
  • Daniel Jones's 69.1% Adjusted Completion% this year illustrates an impressive gain in his passing precision over last year's 63.4% rate.
  • Since the start of last season, the poor Titans defense has conceded a staggering 72.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 6th-highest rate in the league.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Colts are a 6-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a running game script.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Indianapolis Colts as the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 50.0% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • At the present time, the 3rd-least pass-heavy offense in the league near the end zone (50.1% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Colts.
  • The Indianapolis Colts have played in the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which should lead to reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing attack efficiency when facing windier weather this week.
  • The model projects Daniel Jones to throw 30.5 passes in this week's game, on average: the 6th-fewest among all quarterbacks.

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