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Daniel Jones

Daniel Jones TD Passes
Player Prop Week 13

Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans

 
 
 
Daniel Jones TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+146/-163).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +135 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +146.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is projected by the projection model to see 131.1 offensive plays run: the 4th-most among all games this week.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
  • In this week's game, Daniel Jones is expected by the projections to have the 7th-most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 36.2.
  • The Colts offensive line grades out as the best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
  • Daniel Jones's throwing precision has improved this season, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 63.4% to 67.7%.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • A running game script is implied by the Colts being a 3-point favorite this week.
  • Right now, the 5th-least pass-centric offense in the league in the red zone (51.6% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Colts.
  • The 10th-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Indianapolis Colts this year (a mere 55.2 per game on average).
  • This year, the fierce Texans defense has given up a measly 65.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 4th-lowest rate in the NFL.
  • This year, the formidable Texans defense has surrendered a puny 0.91 passing TDs per game to opposing quarterbacks: the 2nd-smallest rate in football.

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