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Daniel Jones

Daniel Jones TD Passes
Player Prop Week 1

Indianapolis Colts vs Miami Dolphins

 
 
 
Daniel Jones TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+135/-180).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +145 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +135.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The leading projections forecast the Colts offense to be the 5th-fastest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.41 seconds per snap.
  • Daniel Jones has attempted 36.2 throws per game last year, ranking in the 90th percentile among QBs.
  • When talking about protecting the passer (and the positive effect it has on all air attack stats), the O-line of the Colts profiles as the 4th-best in the NFL last year.
  • As it relates to linebackers in covering receivers, Miami's LB corps has been terrible last year, grading out as the 7th-worst in the NFL.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The projections expect the Colts to be the 7th-least pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 54.7% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
  • The leading projections forecast the Colts to be the least pass-heavy team in the NFL near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 48.8% red zone pass rate.
  • The Colts have played in the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL last year, which should mean reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced offense efficiency when facing windier weather this week.
  • Daniel Jones comes in as one of the least on-target quarterbacks in the NFL last year with a 63.4% Adjusted Completion%, ranking in the 24th percentile.
  • Daniel Jones has been among the bottom TD throwers in the league last year, averaging a miserable 0.80 per game while ranking in the 15th percentile.

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