Daniel Jones TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Daniel Jones

NFL · Player Props

Daniel Jones

QB · New York Giants

TD Passes

Miami Dolphins vs New York Giants · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 7:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Daniel Jones TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+158/-205).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -200 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -205.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Giants are a huge 13-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
The predictive model expects the Giants to be the 6th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 62.0% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The Giants have been the 10th-most pass-heavy offense in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) this year with a 60.3% red zone pass rate.
The leading projections forecast the New York Giants offense as the 9th-fastest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 27.57 seconds per snap.
Our trusted projections expect Daniel Jones to attempt 35.7 passes in this week's game, on average: the 9th-most among all quarterbacks.

Favors Under

The New York Giants offensive line ranks as the 2nd-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
Daniel Jones has been one of the worst touchdown passers in the league this year, averaging a terrible 0.50 per game while checking in at the 14th percentile.
As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Miami's collection of safeties has been phenomenal this year, projecting as the best in the league.

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