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Daniel Jones

Daniel Jones Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 1

Indianapolis Colts vs Miami Dolphins

 
 
 
Daniel Jones Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-112/-112).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 24.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 25.5 @ -112.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Our trusted projections expect the Colts as the 8th-most run-centric team among all teams this week with a 45.3% run rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
  • The leading projections forecast the Colts offense to be the 5th-fastest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.41 seconds per snap.
  • The Colts have played in the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL last year, which should mean reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced offense efficiency when facing windier weather this week.
  • The model projects Daniel Jones to total 7.3 carries in this game, on average: the 5th-most out of all quarterbacks.
  • Daniel Jones isn't afraid to be involved in the run game, comprising 22.9% of his offense's carries last year, putting him in the 91st percentile among QBs.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a dreadful tally of 4.3 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) (8th percentile), Daniel Jones ranks as one of the weakest running QBs in the league last year.
  • Opposing squads have run for the 10th-fewest adjusted yards in football (just 104.0 per game) versus the Dolphins defense last year.
  • The Dolphins defensive ends grade out as the 2nd-best unit in football last year in regard to run defense.

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