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Daniel Jones

Daniel Jones Completions
Player Prop Week 4

Los Angeles Rams vs Indianapolis Colts

 
 
 
Daniel Jones Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-107/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 20.5 @ +100 before it was bet up to 20.5 @ -107.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Colts are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.
  • The model projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 129.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The passing attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (0-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while ground volume may slide.
  • When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the positive effect it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Indianapolis Colts profiles as the 4th-best in football since the start of last season.
  • Daniel Jones's 69.2% Adjusted Completion% this season represents an impressive growth in his throwing accuracy over last season's 63.4% rate.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Right now, the 4th-least pass-oriented team in football (58.2% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Indianapolis Colts.
  • In racking up a measly 22.2 pass attempts per game this year, Daniel Jones ranks among the bottom QBs in football (25th percentile) by this measure.
  • Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 4th-lowest clip in the NFL against the Los Angeles Rams defense since the start of last season (67.6% Adjusted Completion%).
  • When it comes to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Los Angeles's LB corps has been one of the most skilled since the start of last season, projecting as the 4th-best in football.

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