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Daniel Jones Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (+125/-148).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 19.5 @ +113 before it was bet up to 20.5 @ +125.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The leading projections forecast the Colts offense to be the 5th-fastest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.41 seconds per snap.Daniel Jones has attempted 36.2 throws per game last year, ranking in the 90th percentile among QBs.When talking about protecting the passer (and the positive effect it has on all air attack stats), the O-line of the Colts profiles as the 4th-best in the NFL last year.As it relates to linebackers in covering receivers, Miami's LB corps has been terrible last year, grading out as the 7th-worst in the NFL.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The projections expect the Colts to be the 7th-least pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 54.7% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.The Colts have played in the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL last year, which should mean reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced offense efficiency when facing windier weather this week.Daniel Jones comes in as one of the least on-target quarterbacks in the NFL last year with a 63.4% Adjusted Completion%, ranking in the 24th percentile.
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